Black Friday

           When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door

      And catch the gray men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,

             When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owned

              And before my friends find out I'll be on the road

                                                                            Steely Dan

       

Yes fellow bloggers Friday, October 29^th, 2010 felt a little like Black Friday for our friends the Purple

People Eaters, aka NuVasive.   TSB did not see any NuVa executives jumping out of fourteenth floor windows, primarily because there are no fourteenth floor windows at corporate.  Based on the latest earnings call NuVa’s stock dropped 28.84%, the equivalent of $10.56 per share, closing at 26.05, with an oh sooooooooooo slight rebound this morning.

In retrospect, NuVa’s full year guidance has caught up with the company, not only due to the economy, but also because of the uncertainty as to where healthcare is going.  It's funny how times have changed.  A year ago Lukianov was telling the market and investors that based on feedback from surgeons, things were not slowing up.  In April of this year,  Lukianov discussed how NuVasive’s focus was to become the most creative spine technology company in the world  vis-à-vis speed and innovation.  Unfortunately, like the rest of the market, NuVa is now learning that even with a state-of-the art educational program and facility, this downturn is bigger than the both of us.  In addition, forecasting is more art than science, and unfortunately the economic canvass is creating angst for expansion.   Guidance of $480 to $500 million may be a thing of the past.  But this doesn’t mean that they won’t come close.  Unfortunately, coming close is like coming in fifth in the trifecta, and everyone knows that when you woo the Street , sometimes it comes back to bite you, as it did NuVa on Friday.

NuVasive is no longer the only show in town when it comes to lateral access devices. Yet, the XLif still has history and tenure.  Unfortunately, squatters are proliferating a segment of the industry that was abandoned or unoccupied with the exception of NuVa.   Granted NuVasive has flexed its corporate prowess with XLif, but eventually steroids take their toll.  So how low will they go?  In all likelihood, the stock will rebound.  But will it ever rebound to the highest of highs is the $500 million dollar question?  NuVa will finish strong, just shy of their revenue objective.  But, the question must be asked, did Alex bite off more than he could chew?  Or, is he much shrewder than we even give him credit for?   TSB wants to know what our readers think?